Olive Oil Market Stable in E.U. Short-Term Outlook

Despite the war in Ukraine, olive oil prices are expected to remain steady. E.U.production and consumption will rise. Exports will fall.
May. 4, 2022
Paolo DeAndreis

Recent News

The avail­abil­ity of food, ani­mal feed and fer­til­izer will not be sig­nif­i­cantly affected in the European Union, despite the ongo­ing Russian inva­sion of Ukraine, accord­ing to the bloc’s lat­est short-term agri­cul­tural out­look.

As a result, olive oil prices should stay at cur­rent lev­els while mar­ket­ing costs and demand are grow­ing. According to the report, the E.U. is largely self-suf­fi­cient in feed­ing itself, with a mas­sive agri-food trade sur­plus.

However, the report acknowl­edged the crit­i­cal role played by Ukraine in grain and seed oil mar­kets and warned how the war is fur­ther stress­ing global sup­ply chains, which were already cop­ing with con­sid­er­able chal­lenges before the out­break of the war.

See Also:Olive Oil Exports to Exceed 1M Tons by 2030, E.U. Forecasts

Among the con­se­quences of the geopo­lit­i­cal ten­sions, com­mod­ity prices are ris­ing, includ­ing energy, fer­til­iz­ers, wheat and soy­beans. Experts expect those prices to grow fur­ther, poten­tially impact­ing the abil­ity of farm­ers to pur­chase fer­til­iz­ers, feed and pay their energy bills.

The report said the out­look is sta­ble in the bloc’s olive oil sec­tor. In the 2021/22 crop year, E.U. olive oil pro­duc­tion is expected to reach 2.3 mil­lion tons, a 10 per­cent increase com­pared with the pre­vi­ous sea­son.


Olive oil prices, which have steadily grown in the three bench­mark mar­kets in recent months, should stay at cur­rent lev­els. This will hap­pen pri­mar­ily because of increas­ing costs for pack­ag­ing and trans­port.

Olive oil prices will also be affected by higher demand for the prod­uct as a sub­sti­tute for other veg­etable oils, the prices of which are sky­rock­et­ing due to the war in Ukraine.

Given this sce­nario, E.U. experts believe that olive oil con­sump­tion within the European Union could rise 7 per­cent com­pared with the pre­vi­ous crop year. Partially as a result, a slight 3 per­cent decrease is esti­mated for exports.

In its recent report on the mar­ket sit­u­a­tion in the olive oil sec­tor, the European Union’s Common Organization of the Agricultural Markets said global olive oil pro­duc­tion should reach 3.378 mil­lion tons against the 3.010 mil­lion tons of the pre­vi­ous sea­son.

Looking at the five-years pro­duc­tion aver­age, E.U. olive oil pro­duc­tion grew by 11 per­cent in the 2021/22 crop year.

Spain is expected to con­tribute 66 per­cent of the yields with 1.49 mil­lion tons in the cur­rent sea­son, fol­lowed by Italy with 15 per­cent (328,000 tons) and Greece with 10 per­cent (215,000 tons).

While most of the world’s pro­duc­tion comes from E.U. mem­ber states, the com­mit­tee also high­lighted the global recov­ery in olive oil pro­duc­tion in non‑E.U. coun­tries, which is fore­casted to reach 1.125 mil­lion tons, up from 959,000 tons in the pre­vi­ous crop year.

The report noted how those num­bers should bring the cur­rent sea­son’s results 1 per­cent above the five-year aver­age for non‑E.U. pro­duc­ing coun­tries.

Olive Oil Times Video Series

Related Articles

Feedback / Suggestions